Flood susceptibility assessment in central region of Vietnam based on ensemble fuzzy logic and multivariate analysis

Duc-Loc Nguyen, Tien-Yin Chou, Mei-Hsin Chen, Thanh-Van Hoang, Trong-Phuong Tran, Thanh-Son Ngo, Ngoc-Anh Do Thi, Thu-Huong Bui, Quoc-Huy Nguyen

Rezumat/Abstract. Flooding is the most damaging natural hazard in the world. A better understanding of floods is a fundamental element in guiding the development of policies for managing and reducing flood risk. The main objective of this research is to contribute to the improvement of knowledge on flood susceptibility by combining Fuzzy AHP and Multivariate Analysis. Ha Tinh province in Vietnam was selected as the case study in which many floods have occurred in recent years. To accomplish this goal, 14 factors and 1427 flood locations were used to establish the flood susceptibility model. The area under the curve (AUC) was applied to assess the model accuracy. The results showed that rainfall, NDVI, NDBI, density of river, elevation, slope and aspect are the main factors influencing the occurrence of flooding. The models are efficient in analyzing the flood susceptibility in study area with AUC=0.87. Approximately 36% of the study area was recognized as Very High and High flood susceptibility, which focused on the littoral zone and along the river. The results of this research could be used as a scientific platform for better land use planning and sustainable development in areas highly vulnerable to floods.

Cuvinte cheie/Key words: flood, fuzzy AHP, GIS, Ha Tinh, Vietnam

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